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Wednesday, October 7, 2015

SPX Straddle - 52 DTE - Manage Profits at 45%

In this post we look at the backtest results of selling a one-lot, at-the-money (ATM) straddle on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), initiated at 52 days-to-expiration (DTE).  In this fifth post of five on 52 DTE straddles, we look at trades that use the same loss exits as shown in the first post, and in addition, take profits at 45% of the credit received.  The results displayed in this post represent data from 824 individual trades entered by the automated backtester.

For background on the setup for the backtests, as well as the nomenclature used in the charts and tables below, please see the introductory article for this series: Option Straddle Series - P&L Exits.

In the trade metrics tables, some of the metrics rows have been highlighted to indicate values that are in the upper half of the readings.  One of the metrics to note is the average P&L per day in percentage terms (P&L % / Trade - Avg. P&L / Day).  This is a measure of the P&L per day normalized to the maximum initial portfolio margin (initial PM) required for that trade run...it tells us the effectiveness of theta with respect to our margin requirement.  Also note that the y-axis scale is the same in all of the 52 DTE equity curves.


No IV Rank Filter

In this section we will look at the results of entering one trade for every monthly expiration regardless of the implied volatility rank (IVR) of the SPX on the date of entry.  Entering these trades at 52 DTE and utilizing our loss exits and 45% credit exits (described here), resulted in the equity curves below.

SPX Short Options Straddle Equity Curves - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The trade metrics for these different exits are shown in the table below.  The (125:45) and (175:45) variations stood out with solid P&L % / day readings, the two highest overall P&L % values, and the best win rates.  Several of these metrics were the same as other strategy variations.

SPX Short Options Straddle Trade Metrics - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The table below shows the distribution of returns in five-number summary format.  Hat-tip to tastytrade.

SPX Short Options Straddle 5 Number Summary - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

Below are three sets of scatter plots for selling 52 DTE ATM SPX straddles. The first image contains one scatter plot per strategy and shows P&L in percentage terms versus IVR for the SPX. The IVR was captured on the day each trade was initiated.  The trend of increasing P&L with increasing IVR is very clear.


SPX Short Options Straddle Scatter Plot IV Rank versus P&L - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The next image shows P&L in percentage terms versus initial ATM IV. This ATM IV was captured on the day each trade was initiated.  Higher IV resulted in higher returns, but the majority of the profitable and unprofitable trades occurred at lower IV...below 40.

SPX Short Options Straddle Scatter Plot IV versus P&L - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The third image shows P&L in percentage terms versus days-in-trade (DIT).  In order to extract 45% of the credit, the trade duration needs to be longer...this is clearly evident with the clustering of profitable trades above 30 DIT.  At the higher loss management levels, 125% and greater, most of the losses were realized at expiration.  This is the same pattern we noticed with the 45 DTE trades using the 45% win management level.

SPX Short Options Straddle Scatter Plot DIT versus P&L - 52 DTE - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)


IV Rank > 50% Filter

In this section we will look at the results of entering one trade for every monthly expiration only when the IVR of the SPX is greater than 50% ( >50% ).  Entering these trades at 52 DTE and utilizing our loss exits and 45% credit exits (described here) resulted in the equity curves below.

SPX Short Options Straddle Equity Curves - 52 DTE - IV Rank > 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The trade metrics for these different exits are shown in the table below.  As we've seen with the earlier articles, there are significantly fewer trades that meet the >50% IVR criteria.  The top variations (highlighted in yellow) had higher P&L% per day readings and win rates than the non-IVR filtered variations.  Also, in general, the top performers managed losers quickly...at the 50%, 75%, and 100% loss levels.

SPX Short Options Straddle Trade Metrics - 52 DTE - IV Rank > 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The table below shows the distribution of returns in five-number summary format.

SPX Short Options Straddle 5 Number Summary - 52 DTE - IV Rank > 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)


IV Rank < 50% Filter

In this section we will look at the results of entering one trade for every monthly expiration only when the IVR of the SPX is less than 50% ( <50% ).  Entering these trades at 52 DTE and utilizing our loss exits and 45% credit exits (described here) resulted in the equity curves below.  These filtered trades have had a very good run all of 2015, and this trend was present in the 35% profit management level also.

SPX Short Options Straddle Equity Curves - 52 DTE - IV Rank < 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The trade metrics for these different exits are shown in the table below.  Using the lower IVR filter did not improve any of the metrics.

SPX Short Options Straddle Trade Metrics - 52 DTE - IV Rank < 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

The table below shows the distribution of returns in five-number summary format.

SPX Short Options Straddle 5 Number Summary - 52 DTE - IV Rank < 50 - Risk:Reward 45% Exits
(click to enlarge)

In the next post I'll summarize the automated backtest results of the 52 DTE ATM SPX short straddles, before moving on to the 59 DTE straddle series.


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3 comments:

Michael said...

Dave,

As always, you continue to post valuable data. Thank you for sharing your expertise.

What most premium selling strategies seem to share is a high percentage of profitable trades with occasional ravaging losses. A major benefit of back testing is observing the drawdowns and trying to manage and reduce them.

While it’s not possible to forecast the timing of drawdowns, it would be very valuable to know how a strategy would perform encountering Murphy’s Law—if it started with the worst possible timing.

Would you consider adding a cumulative P&L chart to your results presentations that initiates each back test right before the largest drawdown (i.e. late summer of 2008 or summer of 2011) to demonstrate the drawdown recovery each strategy may posses?

It might offer invaluable insight on what percentage of a portfolio to deploy to a strategy, especially at the outset.

An Ulcer index metric would show how each strategy recovered over time (which would also be valuable), but seeing a P&L chart of a strategy initiated at the worst possible time might offer a more intuitive perspective.

Thanks for your consideration.

Best,

Michael

Dave R. said...

Michael,

Thanks for the suggestions. Recovery from a drawdown is indeed an important consideration in strategy selection and allocation.

I have most of the analysis for the SPX straddles complete at this time, so I won't be able to add additional charts or metrics until I start the next series. Which, by the way, will have significantly less detail...these straddle charts, tables, and posts take way too much time for me to produce.

Thanks again,
Dave

Dee Hagerty said...

Excellent ideas ! I was fascinated by the facts , Does anyone know where my business would be able to grab a template a form version to use ?

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